Resource Commodity Dependency and State Econometric Modeling

Predictive Evaluation of Econometric Forecasting Models in Commodity Futures Markets

The predictive accuracy of various econometric models, including random walks, vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models, are investigated using daily futures prices of 4 commodities (the S&P500 index, treasury bonds, gold and crude oil). All models are estimated using a rolling window approach, and evaluated by both in-sample and out-of-sample performance measures. The criteria ...

Bent Nielsen : Econometric Modeling

is published by Princeton University Press and copyrighted, © 2007, by Princeton University Press. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher, except for reading and browsing via the World Wide Web. Users ar...

Modeling adaptation in multi-state resource systems

Commodity Flow Modeling

The project reported on here was undertaken with the primary objective of creating a database of commodity flows into and out of the counties of Indiana and to allocate this commodity traffic to the transportation network of the state. Such a database was to form the foundation for a general transportation model for Indiana that would assist state decision-makers in evaluating the various alter...

Evolutionary Computation for Econometric Modeling

This paper shows that, in case of high sensitivity to data econometric modeling, using evolutionary algorithms (Genetic Algorithms GA and Simulated Annealing SA) is better than using classical gradient techniques. The evaluation of the algorithms involved was performed on a short form of an economic macromodel. The optimization task is the model’s solution, as function of the initial values (in...